With less than two weeks to go before America’s midterm elections, voters are casting ballots early in numbers well above the last midterm cycle — particularly in the states expected to decide which party controls the US Senate.
An Associated Press analysis of advance ballots cast through Tuesday found that more than 13 million mail-in and early in-person votes have already been recorded nationally, compared with 9 million at the same point in 2022. In Texas, early voting is up 74% on four years ago. Kansas has more than doubled its early turnout, while Maine, North Carolina and Ohio have each registered increases of more than 30% in combined early in-person and mail voting.
The pattern matters because of where it is happening. Democrats are trying to flip Republican-held Senate seats in each of those states, and in most of them Republicans account for a smaller share of advance voters than they did in 2022 — a shift that has encouraged Democrats and unsettled Republican strategists in places the party did not expect to have to defend this year. The AP points to dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump’s tariffs, the persistently high cost of living, and the high petrol and diesel prices caused by the war involving Iran as sources of political blowback against the governing party.
Midterm elections usually favour the party out of power, and this year’s environment is inverted from 2022: Republicans now hold both chambers of Congress and the White House, and are defending that record rather than attacking the other side’s. Control of the House of Representatives is also at stake on November 3, with Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries expressing confidence that his party can regain the chamber.
Analysts urge caution about reading too much into the figures, however. Early turnout measures enthusiasm and habit, not outcomes: it does not show how the votes will split, and some of the increase simply reflects states that have expanded early voting opportunities since 2022 or made more of their data available. A surge driven by one side’s supporters can also be cancelled out by the other side’s voters on election day itself.
Still, the geography of the surge — deep-red Kansas doubling its turnout, Texas up by three quarters — suggests an electorate that is more engaged, and more volatile, than midterm voters usually are. Both campaigns now have the same job for the remaining days: make sure the enthusiasm showing up in the early numbers survives until the polls close.
Sources:
Associated Press — https://www.kcau9.com/news/politics/ap-many-states-deciding-control-of-the-senate-are-seeing-a-big-boost-in-early-voting-ap-analysis-shows/
The Korea Herald — https://m.koreaherald.com/article/10911398
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